European government bonds are going to be the worst performing area in the first quarter. There'll be one more rate hike in the first quarter and another in the second quarter.
With demand still weak, there's room to cut rates in the first half of next year. That'll keep yields around 4 percent for 10-year gilts.
Given the uncertainty of the effect the hurricane may have on the economy, the Fed may take a pause in raising interest rates.
We believe the Monetary Policy Committee will be forced to make two more cuts – in November and February.
By stepping outside the majority view, he undermines his own credibility. He just becomes another member on the committee.
This week's data is proof that the hawks in the Monetary Policy Committee are wrong, giving gilts support this week.
They are big on zealous regulation, but they are not good at real economics.
Demand is vastly outstripping supply. It's not surprising that some of the dealers are going to the DMO because it's difficult to make a market in these conditions.
Strip out higher oil prices, and Europe doesn't have an inflation problem. We're still bullish for the medium term.
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