There might be a little more flexibility in the U.S. refining system than people expected. Plants have been able to churn out more product than initially thought.
Prices are strong at the moment primarily because of the tensions over Iran and concerns over what might come out from the IAEA inspection.
In the short term, any kind of disruption from two very large producers like Iran and Nigeria isn't something that can be offset by other production.
As we've had more damage assessment, it looks like it might be more severe than initially expected. Gasoline stockpiles are still very low and heating oil and diesel may be a bit of a worry going into the winter.
Iran is going to be the focus for still quite a long period.
The particular type of oil being lost, light sweet, is much in demand. So we're actually seeing a real impact from the loss of that crude. Having said that, there is actually plenty of crude around. But a lot of it is heavy and sour.
With steady supplies and high inventories, at some point prices are going to have to retreat.
It is a strange market at the moment and frankly I am surprised that the rise we've seen earlier in the week from the Ukraine-Russia dispute is still there. People still feel a bit shaky about what happened in Russia and Ukraine, and with Sharon ill and some uncertainty in Israel.
The market seems to be determined to pass 70 dollars.
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