The state is creating jobs at a prodigious rate. It has all the makings of a job-creating machine: good weather, low costs, a growing population, a strong tourism industry and little heavy manufacturing.

You have to be careful that your entire strategy doesn't depend on one industry. But manufacturing is still a vital part of the American economy.

It's the flip of a coin whether the Fed will stop at 4.75 percent or 5 percent. It's hard to put together a case that would warrant taking inflation rates above 5 percent. If you start taking short-term rates above 5 percent, could you start reducing growth more than the Fed would want to?