They wanted to give themselves some flexibility, which they didn't have with that language.
Stocks would really get whacked, because they have priced in that some kind of economic growth is coming. A rate cut would be a sign that growth isn't coming.
We're not talking about adding 300,000 jobs, which is what you get when things are really going well; we're still a long way from that. I don't think it's an issue at all from an inflationary standpoint.
The manufacturing side of the economy has been contracting for a couple of months in a row, and the rate of decline has accelerated. That's pretty scary. The odds of a cut are 90 percent, and I'm not ruling out the chance there will be a cut between [policy] meetings.
I'm not predicting a double-dip recession, but the odds of it have gone up. Instead of 5 percent, there's maybe a 15 or 20 percent chance of it now.
I think this is telling you that they are going to do at least another (rate hike), and then likely a couple more after that.
Consumers have proven many times over that when they can get something at a good value, they'll do it.
It's hard to fall any more if you're already on the ground.
The Fed will be more upbeat, but there's still a long way to go before they make any move. This economy is just beginning to really grow. Until we get real job creation, there will be no inflation worries -- and we're not there yet.
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