It's not a big roaring bull market. It's just a slow but steady climb towards resistance in terms of the Nasdaq. We could get up to 4,400 or 4,600 by the end of the quarter. In terms of the Dow, we're getting closer to resistance and we're in the zone. Maybe we can go up another couple of hundred points.

As we get closer to the quarter-end, if the Federal Reserve does not raise rates, and even indicates a neutral bias after that, you will have a quarter-ending window-dressing rally like you've never seen before.

We could be looking at the mirror image of what happened in April of last year, where we got above the 50-day and 200-day averages and then the trend turned up. The risk of rolling the other way is the opposite [of that action].

If we fall below 7,700, we're looking at a potential fall to 7,200, where it was in October. That's a 500 point range, but it's one we could stay in for a while.

What I don't want to see is the Dow fall below that October low, because then you're in danger of seeing a Dow 5,000 scenario.

I think we've set the stage for a year-end rally.

We've left ourselves without support as we're breaking to new lows for the year.

The market is looking for that soft landing. If we can get through the productivity unit labor cost next week, and they are benign, and it takes the Fed totally off the radar screen, then we'll get a relief rally, but not a bull market. So we're in a non-bear market, non-bull market. We're in a trading-range environment.