"Patrick E. Tyler" is an author and formerly chief correspondent for the New York Times. He is the author of three books: A World of Trouble: The White House and the Middle East from the Cold War to the War on Terror, A Great Wall: Six Presidents and China, a history of U.S.-China relations since the 1972 opening by President Richard Nixon, and Running Critical - The Silent War, Rickover and General Dynamics, a history of the U.S. nuclear submarine program under Admiral Hyman G. Rickover.

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Now the same fear was being projected on Iraq -- that he was an alarming, threatening leader in the region who was out to grab the oil weapon and use it against the West.

Everyone was evacuated so it's hard to find out what's happening.

In the 1980's, our Arab allies in the region and our own assessment convinced us that Iraq might be a new kind of moderate Arab leader, that [Saddam] could be brought into the moderate Arab camp.

The key is, how fast does it get hot?