"Nariman Behravesh" is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates (McGraw-Hill). Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial and political developments in over 200 countries.

Behravesh is quoted extensively in the media on such topics as the outlook for the US and global economies, exchange rates, the budget deficit, the trade deficit, globalization, country risk and sovereign debt crises.

Dr. Behravesh is a featured speaker at many of the top global conferences each year, including IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates CERA Week and the World Economic Forum in World Economic Forum/Davos.

More Nariman Behravesh on Wikipedia.

We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession.

The problem is the combined effects of the disruptions from Katrina and Rita, plus the ripple effects in the economy from higher energy prices.

The higher energy costs will put a squeeze on both businesses and households. They're spending so much on energy - the households on gasoline, the airlines on jet fuel, for example - that they'll have to curtail elsewhere.

Both growth and inflation in the coming months could be stronger than financial markets are currently expecting. There is a growing risk that the Fed will have to tighten further and longer than many analysts anticipate.

The Fed has been singularly unsuccessful in cooling down the hot U.S. housing market, primarily because its rate hikes have had little impact on long-term interest rates — so far.

Even before the hurricane hit, rising energy prices were having a dampening effect on the economy.

The U.K. tried to cool off the housing market and slow their economy a bit, and they're caught in a situation where the economy is slowing but inflation isn't mostly because of oil prices, ... It's a bit of a dilemma, and that's reflected in their split vote.

There's not a lot of relief in sight. I would not be surprised to see the monthly deficit go above $60 billion by fall, and stay there.

Let's be clear -- for the next couple of months the employment numbers are going to look terrible. There's going to be a lot of noise and problems gathering the data, so it's going to be tougher than usual to sift through the tea leaves and really get at the heart of what's going on here.