A significant part of demand right now is based on speculation that something is going to happen in the future or near future to make supplies much more scarce.
This is obviously a continuation of what we've been seeing, which is strong economic growth and inflation expectations.
Today's number is a sign of slowing ahead. But that's not a negative thing. With the dramatic price appreciation we've seen, we don't want to see a runaway market out of control.
Inflation has boxed the Fed in, they are going to have to keep moving rates up.
Everything changed after 9-11. There is a panic premium in prices today, driven by perceptions that supply and production are centered in countries that could fall into political turmoil.
You just can't have 30 percent growth every quarter.
We didn't get much new information here.
The bottom line is that it's best to look at what the companies are actually doing rather than pay too much attention to what they're saying.
The minutes didn't change the outlook for the interest rate moves priced into the market. The Fed is expected to raise the funds rate at least two more times unless economic data is released that will change this assumption.
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