Keep in mind, consumer confidence is tied to your job.

On a year-on-year basis, before this number was released, housing starts are down 11 percent. So you can see they've gently rolled over, showing higher interest rates are taking their toll on some parts of the housing industry.

Put in perspective, these levels are as high as they were in the late 1960s, so the fact that we've come off a little bit is most likely the reflection of anticipation of higher interest rates.

Keep in mind that export orders are a big part of this and since Asia has turned, so has manufacturing turned.

It's way too premature to talk about a recovery.

I do think that a rate cut is coming, more likely toward the end of the year when we see some of the economic data.

It's really amazing. Our economy is growing at over 4 percent real growth and in the midst of that we have barely any inflation. Quite unprecedented.

The Fed is doing what it has to do, talking a tough line. It still remains to be seen when the upward pressure on wages will trickle up to inflation. Right now, the average American consumer has been untouched, unscathed by the events in Asia.

I think the Fed is erring on the side of caution, as a central bank should. That's why they left the direction in place. It could be this time they're holding tight too long. We'll know that only in hindsight, as unfortunate as that is.