I've been investing in boring things, and boring has been pretty good.

Consumers are clearly being impacted by the three hurricanes, ... That, combined with natural gas and gasoline prices, is having an effect. I think $3 a gallon gasoline is the tipping point to a consumer that is under siege. But this number is really no great surprise.

The big concern is future inflation and the Fed is viewing that through the labor market. Wage growth continues to be muted.

I don't pay much attention to what the Fed says because I don't know what they mean when they say it. It's like Nostradamus. These folks talk in quatrains. It's kind of comical as everyone tries to dissect this stuff.

Markets will be stuck in the middle.

The rally will extend and challenge December highs. But it's not a bull market. We're just bouncing back from January lows back to the top end of the trading range.

The market is not priced for oil prices at record highs and rising interest rates and slowing earnings momentum and terrorist worries. People are pretty complacent out there. The assumption is that the economy is mending and that this will be a robust, self-sustaining recovery.

Yet you can make good money in that environment. It just takes a different strategy; you try to hold a core bunch of stocks you think are in secular bull markets and trade at inflection points.

The cheerleaders talk about the economy growing, but the economy grew at 7 percent from 1966 to 1982, while stocks went nowhere because valuations were too optimistic. And they're optimistic now, by historic measurements.