The Bank of England will be concerned higher interest rates elsewhere will put pressure on the pound.

We might not see retail sales numbers that are that strong yet, but they will pick up toward the end of the year.

We are seeing a gentle recovery going on in retail sales at this stage, which I expect to get stronger going forward. The pickup in the housing market should have a general wealth effect, making consumers happier to go out and spend.

If the rise in petrol prices in the producer-price data is reflected in the CPI data, there is a risk the inflation rate could be 2.2 percent.