Without question, this is the worst political-risk year we've seen for energy supplies since 1973.
"Ian Bremmer" is an American political scientist specializing in US foreign policy, states in transition, and global political risk. He is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm. As of December 2014, he is foreign affairs columnist and editor-at-large at TIME. In 2013, he was named Global Research Professor at New York University. Eurasia Group provides analysis and expertise about how political developments and national security dynamics move markets and shape investment environments across the globe. Bremmer is of Armenians/Armenian and German descent.
Bremmer is most widely known for advances in political risk; called the "rising guru" in the field by the Economist and, more directly, bringing political science as a discipline to the financial markets. In 2001, Bremmer created Wall Street's first global political risk index, now the GPRI (Global Political Risk Index). Bremmer's definition of an emerging market as "a country where politics matters at least as much as economics to the market" is a standard reference in the political risk field.
More Ian Bremmer on Wikipedia.Why are the Iranians pushing so aggressively instead of biding their time, like North Korea did? The obvious answer is that Iran is in a far stronger position. Iran can respond in ways that can be very painful to the international community. Iran has leverage.
The upside is the culture of entrepreneurship that comes from education and the belief in opportunities. It creates a very optimistic outlook.
Today's exceptionally tight market gives marginal producers unprecedented power and greater geopolitical importance. They have the ability to press. They have leverage.
The Iranians can ramp this up or back as they're pressed. And thus far, they have shown every inclination to do precisely that.
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