There are many plans to build refineries, but with rising construction costs and a shortage of project engineers, expansion isn't that easy. Until this new capacity comes on stream, oil market swings will depend on the U.S. situation.

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Oil demand in the U.S., China and India is expected to rise further. Supplies, especially of sweet crude oil, will increase only slightly compared with the growth in demand.

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Factors in the U.S. will keep moving oil prices. The U.S. will continue to import oil products to feed its growing economy.

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