All of these odds are from one-and-a-half to twice as high as the annual odds during the past century. This means there is an extremely high probability that 2006 will turn out to be another very challenging year.

Given the massive catastrophe losses absorbed by insurers in 2005, the increase in income during the first three quarters is a testament to the underlying financial health of the industry.

Unfortunately, hurricane and severe weather experts are predicting another very active hurricane season.

Further complicating any assessment of the dynamics of reinsurance markets and how those dynamics will affect primary insurance markets, the unprecedented losses caused by this year's hurricanes may change insurers' perceptions of the amount of risk they've taken on and the amount of reinsurance they need.