Such an elephants' wedding may result in paralysis when it comes to brokering the type of structural changes Germany needs. At the most, you can expect half- hearted compromises.

Merkel has absolutely no choice but to rein in spending. She'll have zero room for maneuver if she doesn't tackle the deficit.

That can't be the goal of any of the major parties. The people would likely punish them at the ballots for not being able to overcome their inner-party conflicts and finally form a government. They're sick of it.

No one would believe it.

They aren't able to criticize her, that would help Schroeder. But if Merkel becomes chancellor, then she will be the candidate again in 2007, pushing back their political ambitions for several years.

She probably has enough steam to get into the harbor . . . but whether she will have the power to overhaul the German system is, I think, quite unlikely. Germans want some economic reforms, sure. But not Reaganomics that take away traditional strong social protections.

Even if people agree with the need for reforms, they are uncertain about the flat tax. They are starting to fear that they could be the losers in this reform.

Unemployment is obviously the biggest problem at the moment. But I'm not sure if the new government can really affect change in that department. Germany is too dependent on the global development.

I think that there has been criticism directed at Schroeder from inside the party. Schroeder is doing some downgrading of the price of a grand coalition, but that doesn't mean he is completely out of the race for chancellor.