Long-term mortgage rates will more than likely rise over the next few months, albeit modestly compared to shorter-term rates.

Recent economic indicators show a lackluster economic climate. And that led to the surprise 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed yesterday.

It was no great surprise that housing starts rose for the second time in three months since mortgage rates in November reached levels not seen since the mid-1960s. Since mortgage rates are not expected to increase significantly, we remain confident that the housing industry will continue to be alive and active well into 2003.

November's employment report was a letdown, and it brought mild disappointment to the financial markets, causing mortgage rates to recede. The lack of any job growth stalls the economic recovery and, in the long run, dampens the potential growth of the housing industry.

Anticipation of a 25-basis-point rate cut pushed mortgage rates downward in this week's survey, and we expect to see further downward drifts over the coming week or so as the market moves on the actual larger rate cut itself.

As we expected, mortgage rates moved upward a little in response to the current volatility in the financial markets. Economic reports are mixed, and this will keep mortgage rates bouncing up and down somewhat, probably for the rest of the year.

Mortgage rates have been so low and accommodating that total home sales surged in October as families took advantage of the affordable atmosphere.

Consumer spending has kept the economy moving, and when initial holiday sales were better than expected, financial markets reacted with enthusiasm. It was this potential pick-up in the economy that caused interest rates, including mortgage rates, to drift upwards this week.

Mortgage rates were largely unchanged this week, amid a sobering December jobs report and growing tensions in the (Middle East) and the Korean peninsula. Disappointing retail sales, a struggling manufacturing sector, and mild business investment are all holding mortgage rates in the six-percent range.