Higher oil increasingly will creep into the indicators. Today, it biased the trade gap higher and pushed up import prices and also impeded the consumer sentiment number.
Modestly weaker-then-expected capital goods orders data suggest a slight shift in growth toward Q4 away from Q1 but the simple fact is that the data clearly suggests that factories are going to be humming throughout Q1.
This level of inflation, combined with falling unemployment and rising capacity utilization, is a recipe for continued preventative rate hikes.
We expect a balanced speech that reaffirms that a March hike is likely, but that subsequent moves are data-dependent.
We expect the recent jump in retail gasoline prices to push down confidence. Optimistic views around the labor market will likely offset some of the gasoline sticker shock.
From his comments, it is clear that the US Fed will keep raising rates, hoping to bring the housing market to a very soft landing.
Growth was lower than expectations because of inventories -- which will need to be rebuilt -- while moderating employment costs will make it less costly for firms to hire additional workers. The still-strong level of wage and salary should buoy consumption.
It's the inflation story, it's there and it's got implications going forward.
People are focusing on the impact of higher energy prices on the consumer instead of focusing on the impact of higher energy prices on inflation.
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