The ISM data really do look very strong, but you have to remember that these surveys simply ask whether things are getting better, getting worse, or staying the same.
It could take us below 3 percent, an important psychological level. Below 3 percent really looks bad.
Some have claimed it has a good relationship with the payroll (report), but we do not see its relationship as very impressive.
The comments seemed reasonably hawkish.
The comments seemed reasonably hawkish. The Fed is concerned about inflationary pressures..It's certainly clear they are plan to continue to tighten.
There is no way of knowing how much of its recent moves are seasonal, though we suspect most was.
The Fed is concerned about inflationary pressures, and more concerned about energy prices feeding through to core inflation than feeding through to (slower) consumption.
They measure the breadth of improvement, but not the magnitude of it -- if a lot of people see things getting just a little better, that can produce a very strong ISM number.
I think there's probably also a degree of loss of confidence in the government.
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