It could be an economic recovery and a profits recession.

The upside is critically dependent on an aggressive Fed easing.

One of the things that stands out about this project is how it was funded.

Higher energy prices have taken their toll of hopes for top-line growth. 'Cost-cutting' as a driver of earnings is back on the radar screen.

Normally at the beginning of a bull market you would want to be in the economically sensitive stocks, and that's not what's running at the moment.

All the warning signs that had been detected in recent surveys have come to a head. There is now a deep-seated view that core inflation is on the rise and monetary policy should be tightened. This comes at a time when global growth expectations are already softening.

Pounding the pavement, standing up long hours at events, the kinds of things you have to do in a campaign ... It's definitely disappointing and frustrating. But we'll live to fight another day.

The euphoria we saw at the beginning of the year about the world experiencing a synchronized cyclical recovery has disappeared. While it doesn't feel like a recession is around the corner, fund managers are clearly less confident that the recovery can be sustained.