It's definitely a sweet spot in the Canadian economy.
We think the bank has left the door open for a pause in October, but a rate hike would follow in December. That would take the overnight rate to three per cent by year's end.
With higher auto prices helping to offset the usual price discounting seen in other categories like clothing in December, the annual rate of core inflation is expected to move up to 1.7 per cent during the month.
Today's retail sales report does not alter, in any way, our expectations for the Bank of Canada to continue lifting rates up to a more neutral level of four per cent by the end of April.
Everything must come to an end. Home-ownership levels are at record highs. How far can you go after that?
This still reflects pre-Katrina pump prices, suggesting that the following month's headline CPI number will probably be much, much higher.
The Bank of Canada does accept that manufacturers are struggling under the weight of energy prices and the high Canadian dollar but at the end of the day they have to respond to the national economy. The bank still has enough of a case to keep hiking rates.
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