The U.S. economy is performing so admirably right now, it is hard to believe how good it is. We have strong growth, declining inflation, strong profits, rising real wages. All of these things are happening at the same time and there is no sign that any of this is about to end.

248

Rising oil prices are the biggest risk to what is otherwise shaping up as a robust recovery.

216

Consumer spending, which [has] kept the economy afloat, should decline in the third quarter and lead us into a formal, albeit shallow, recession.

169

We still believe that the recession will persist through the winter, mainly because major job loss looms ahead in order to restore profit margins.

154

We don't expect the Fed to tighten anytime soon. The first tightening move is unlikely to occur before late summer at the very soonest.

142

And the signs since the fourth quarter suggest growth picking up in the first quarter more strongly than most people had anticipated. So I would say the recovery is here.

112

We think the Fed will continue cutting rates, although less aggressively. We are expecting another [quarter-point] cut at the December meeting and another cut in January, with the fed funds rate ending up at 1.5 percent.

111

The economy is definitely making a transition. I think 1998 will be viewed as the year of soft landing when the economy went from a nearly 4 percent growth rate in the prior year, to just over 2 percent this year.

99

With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady.

73