The story here is driven by poor trading results. Hanging on the horizon are these storm clouds that emerge from the trading business. Every quarter you are holding your breath.

When you are investing in J. P. Morgan.

I would say they're the weakest trading house on Wall Street.

Investment banking is relatively easy to forecast, but the trading side is a tough one.

We are probably at the point where the trading cycle is slowing, at least in North America, and it's tough to say investment banking will get better. But the retail and asset management businesses look really good. That's what's exciting to investors.

Physical pricing knowledge in crude and refined products represents the keys to the castle.

I look at my forecast and, frankly, I was off by $180 million on their investment-banking side. M&A did extremely well.

Trading expertise is something that you can purchase on the marketplace.

This is a business of reputation, and when chief executives are making M&A decisions that could affect their own career paths, they don't want to take a chance.