If we get a big kick start to the quarter with a strong April, that could offset us being a bit weaker than we expected to be in the first quarter.

I wouldn't yet rule out the chance we could be as good as last year. It depends on how things turn around now that the uncertainties of the war have played out and how aggressive the automakers continue to be through rest of the year.

The general consensus (on 2004 sales) is 17 million. If manufacturers come on strong with incentives, it'll easily be 17 million. If they pull back -- and there's been a lot of discussion of them pulling back -- it could be 16.5.

We had been projecting an (annual) sales rate of 16 million vehicles in September. If I take out a third of sales for only a two week period, you still come out with an eye-popping 13.3 million sales rate; 13.3 million is about as low as sales ever get.

I think the incentives are going to continue to be necessary. If you don't play the incentive game, you'll lose market share. At least in the first half of the year, even in the best case scenario you're just coming out of the recession, you'll need the support of incentives to maintain sales.

Consumers are going to increasingly weigh the importance of fuel efficiency. But if they need, in their minds, an SUV, they are going to find a way to stay in that vehicle. They'll still look for big engines, towing capacity, cargo space.

I think incentives have been a concern for some time now as they impact margins. With GM pushing hard on incentives to boost their volume, it's pulling everyone kicking and screaming into the game whether they like it or not.

The current incentive levels are not quite as high as they were at the end of last year. In the sense they have been higher, they probably could go up going forward. The price pressure are obviously going to remain very intense. But that said, they're not going to rise dramatically. They're already very good.

Dwindling 2005 inventory levels and rising gas prices have caused a significant drop in full-size SUV and pickup sales.