We're not in trouble. But at the same time it's quite clear that there is no sign of a sustained pickup in growth in sight. Our conclusion is don't worry, don't be happy.

290

There are times when the economy is quite vulnerable, so a gentle push (from oil) can tip the economy into actual recession.

271

Despite the general eagerness to declare that the soft patch is behind, the return to robust growth is nowhere in sight.

268

Growth is more likely to firm modestly from here and it's quite unlikely to ease much further.

228

Four years ago, the economy was in a very vulnerable state. Right now, the economy's window of vulnerability has slammed shut. Even though oil prices might have some impact on consumer spending, it's not likely to trigger a new downturn.

227

The expansion we have now is a resilient one. At this point in the business cycle, even if you have significant shocks from oil, terrorism or [a] big drop in dollar, they are not going to derail the expansion.

217

We are in a situation where we have rising raw material prices, which are very important in China, and a rise in food prices, which are important to Chinese laborers. That's inflationary, and these costs are being passed around.

161

The longer you go on without it, the greater the chance of some nasty surprise lurking in there that we're missing.

158

If you have one foot in a bucket of ice and another in a bucket of boiling water, on average you're perfectly comfortable. In that sense, we're very comfortable with inflation right now.

124